At first, I thought it's pretty obvious that Clover should have gambled and call. He folded by the way. However, after I thought about it for a bit, I'm not really sure what the right move is. Basically, I don't think on this hand, there was no way Frankkin was folding, because the next hand would have both shorties all in. With Frankkin having less chips, if there both eliminated, she's out. I think thats what Clover thought, and decided he'd take his chances with the result of the hand, knowing I was raising all the way to apply the pressure. It turns out Frankkin survived, and Clover was eliminated the next hand. Had he called, I would still raise then Frankkin would more than likely fold. I guess part of the equation was what he held, but since I don't know that, the wheels can spin for quite a while! Oh well, interesting situation to say the least.
2BA
3 comments:
What a weird spot for those two to be in. They basically have to play the other player's hand. I tried to run it through an ICM calculator and it looks like the button made the right choice there:
ICM Link
There are three scenarios here:
1) If the button shoves, he should only do it with Aces. If he does that the SB should call 81.6% of the time (I say 100%) and the BB will call with ATC at that point.
2) If for some reason the SB folds the BB will call with ATC.
3) If the button folds (which he should do unless he has Aces, then the SB will push ATC and the SB will call 46.2% ( you can see the range).
Let's see what happens if both the Button and the BB fold to the SB push:
ICM Link
It says the button should only jam 32.1% but I guess that's immaterial at this point. The other two are all-in.
I would hate to be in their shoes there. I like your position much better.
I think the answer lays basically in what Clover's cards are. If it's a hand with strong showdown value then I would surely call here. I mean, he knows you're in the hand no matter what (literally), and as you point out, the guy up top should surely fold here unless he himself has a strong hand. But then they're both allin on the next hand anyways, and once again you will be playing no matter what you are dealt.
So, to me, Clover gets nothing from calling just for the hike of it. If he has two shitty cards then I would suggest he fold and just hope to be dealt a bigger hand on the next two cards with a better chance of holding up. He gets basically no reward for calling here with a shitty hand, since you're in anyways against him and then the guy up top can definitely fold and just hope and pray.
Not sure where the exact cutoff is for Clover to call here, but I would say any strong shorthanded showdown hand -- maybe any pair above 8s or so, and any two face cards?
What would you call with in this spot if you're Clover?
Nice post. I think sng bubble presents some of the most interesting and often complex problems that often have solutions very much counter to the actual strength of one's cards.
Finally added you to my blogroll today, and posts like this are why. Good stuff.
Maybe see you tonight at the MATH?
Thanks for the link Kaja, definitely gives a better view by the numbers, and I agree with the conclusion.
Hoy, I couldn't agree with you more, SNG bubble play is very complex at times, and I constantly see people unnecessarily gambling, when it's clear that they shouldn't. The situation for gambling has some very clear attributes, yet most people are impatient, and it leads to poor decision making. In this case, without the math knowledge, I'm probably calling with 80% of starting hands, and I'd have a hard time throwing away the other 20%. Part of the problem is that as the button, you have no math for Random VS Random, so your right, the only bit of info you have is the BB starting hand. Thanks for the kind words as always, and yes, I plan to play the MATH tonight. Good luck in the 1k too, your due!
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